The Sounders can hardly find reason to complain about their current lot. With two games left in the season, they can win either game and book a spot in the postseason. Even if the somewhat disappointing scoreless draw against Houston on Wednesday didn’t get them into the playoffs, it did at least deliver that luxury.
After the way the season looked at the start of August, nobody’s complaining.
That doesn’t mean they wanted to be in this particular position at this particular time. Not with circumstances the way they were a scant few days ago. A win against Houston and the final two matches of the regular season were window dressing, a race for positioning for a playoff spot they’d already clinched. That, though, is not the case.
Seattle is still in a place of self determination. A win in either of the final two games and it doesn’t matter what happens on any other field in the country. The problem, though, might be in the execution, not in the theory.
The reason for that begins with Sunday.
The Sounders travel to face FC Dallas this weekend (Sunday, 2 p.m. PT; JOEtv, Univision-Seattle; SoundersFC.com, El Rey 1360am) on a short week’s rest. How much the game matters depends on what happens in Portland. The Timbers-Colorado Rapids match kicks off at the same time, and Portland is on the ropes. Four points behind Seattle with two to play, the Timbers have to win to keep their narrowing postseason chase alive. If they draw or lose against a Colorado team running after its first-ever Supporters' Shield, Seattle’s in. No questions asked.
But the margin is too tight for Seattle to plan for anything but a Timbers win. Which means being in the somewhat unenviable position of going on the road - in the most hostile road league on the planet against maybe the most dangerous team in the league - and needing a win.
The reason that’s so perilous shouldn’t be all that foreign to Sounders fans. You don’t even have to go back a year for proof.
The Sounders are a considerably different team than they were a year ago, when they trekked to Frisco to face FC Dallas in the second leg of the Western Conference semifinals. That night, FC Dallas ripped Seattle apart on the flanks through a concerted effort to target the fullbacks. Considering Cristian Roldan finished that match at left back - ironically where he finished Seattle’s last match against Houston - it was a smart move. FC Dallas finished with a lead after 120 minutes and ultimately advanced on penalties.
Some of the principals may be different - Fabian Castillo has since left FC Dallas, while Clint Dempsey is on the shelf for the rest of the year - but the tactics won’t be all that dissimilar. FCD will endeavor to hit Seattle on breaks and press fullbacks who like to average possession close to midfield. Meanwhile, Seattle will do its best to control tempo and build through Nicolas Lodeiro in the middle.
The biggest impediment to that game plan is doing that without Osvaldo Alonso.
Alonso, the MLS leader in passes and one of its most accurate distributors and tacklers, will miss Sunday through a red card he picked up against Houston. The return of Brad Evans from a red card of his own will ease that transition somewhat, but you don’t simply replace an Alonso. In fact, the only regular season game he’s missed all year was the deflating 3-0 loss at Sporting Kansas City in July.
Needless to say, the Sounders are hoping for a bit more cohesion this time.
There’s reason to believe they get it. The Sporting KC loss was the only time this year Roldan (7) and Erik Friberg (8) have paired together this season, and it didn’t go so well. Here’s a glimpse at the average touch map from that game, a measurement that takes all the touches a player took in a game and pinpoints the middle to triangulate his most trafficked point on the field.
You can’t actually see Roldan because he’s covered up here by Friberg. The two weren’t all that positionally comfortable next to one another, often overlapping on the left in an attempt to stoke possession and compensate for Alonso. Sensing trouble, Evans (3) routinely stepped into the void they created in a frantic attempt to plug gaps. That’s the defensive midfielder in him, but it also created space in behind for the ever dangerous Dom Dwyer. In effect, Seattle often played with a sweeper in Chad Marshall (14) and three quasi-central defensive midfielders.
It isn’t that much of a surprise this didn’t work, not the least because it isn’t how it was supposed to play. Believe it or not, that was set up to be a 4-3-3.
The difference now is Lodeiro. Dempsey (2) has played the last few years of his career as a striker, which left that convenient pocket of space in front of Friberg and Alonso vacant for much of the match. Alonso was usually able to compensate by holding possession to await Dempsey’s deeper arrival, but that didn’t happen here with Alonso on the bench. As a result, the Sounders had an uncharacteristic 35 percent possession in this game.
With Lodeiro, the Sounders are a completely different team. He plugs that hole between the two lines, which should iron out some of the confusion between Friberg and Roldan if they start next to one another. Plus, Roman Torres is far less likely to leave his castle walls if he sees gaps higher upfield, which is more positionally ideal. Even if Alvaro Fernandez is healthy enough to return to the 18 from a hamstring injury for this weekend, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Evans slot in at right mid and Friberg drop in next to Roldan to cover for Alonso.
FC Dallas will throw everything at Seattle in this game. They’re fighting for the Supporters' Shield, and they have the width in Tesho Akindele and Michael Barrios to sneak behind the high line drawn by fullbacks Joevin Jones and Tyrone Mears to create opportunities for the ever dangerous Maxi Urruti. If Seattle gets too stretched, watch out.
This game is not an all-or-nothing proposition for the Sounders. It wouldn’t be all that unlikely to see Seattle lose and still make the playoffs on Saturday. The Rapids, after all, are also playing for their first Supporters' Shield.
But the Sounders certainly don’t want to leave it up to chance. Win and you’re in.
