There’s a popular saying in law enforcement that the outlaws have to get lucky every time, while the cops only need to get lucky once. The same principle holds true for possession offenses in soccer.
The reason they hold such a place of affection for such a broad reach of coaches is that they provide so many opportunities to test weakness by virtue of simply having the ball. It’s almost like sitting on a chair while you watch somebody balance on an exercise ball on one foot. We know who’s going to fall first, it just takes patience.
That hasn’t always worked this season for Seattle Sounders FC, primarily because of the club’s finishing over the course of a choppy summer. They struggled mightily without Obafemi Martins and Clint Dempsey - surprise, surprise - and since they’ve been back Seattle suddenly has poison on the tip of its lance again. That was never more evident than against Vancouver Whitecaps FC last weekend, when the Sounders obliterated the ‘Caps to win the Cascadia Cup and firm up their playoff positioning with just four games left in the regular season.
The Sounders meet Vancouver again at home in a CONCACAF Champions League rubber match on Wednesday (7 pm PDT; FOX Sports 2), a match that will decide Seattle’s fate in the competition. A win and the Sounders move on, and, if they follow this formula, they should be marching into the knockout round.
As a baseline, this is how Seattle’s formation settled over the course Saturday’s match before subs. Keep in mind the Sounders owned 67 percent possession at half and finished with a 54-46 edge.
The tactical discipline and player-to-player connection here spikes into the red. You can’t even see Dempsey’s circle because he’s so heavily obscured by Martins. Brad Evans (No. 3) stayed tethered to right back Tyrone Mears (No. 4) to deal with treat of Vancouver’s Kekuta Manneh, while centerbacks Zach Scott (No. 20) and Chad Marshall (No. 14) are level and, least surprising of all, central midfielders Gonzalo Pineda (8) and Osvaldo Alonso (6) are practically linking arms. Those two passed to one another 34 times in this game, further proof there is not a better possession team in this league when Alonso and Pineda are on the field together.
As we discussed last week, the Whitecaps rely more heavily on scoring first than any team in the league. In a lot of ways their entire system is predicated on rocking teams back from the opening whistle and forcing them to deal with their threat. Shrewdly, Seattle pushed Vancouver wider than it wanted to be on Saturday and laid on the possession thick until the opener fell to Andreas Ivanschitz just before half.
Martins was able to suck in the defense, and even Whitecaps right back Jordan Smith fell into his enormous orbit. Never discount the danger of Martins or Dempsey dropping into the midfield and confusing defenders into mistakes. Whitecaps goalkeeper David Ousted should’ve probably made this save, but you take your life in your hands in one-on-ones like these.
That goal rocked back Vancouver, which came out of the halftime break energized, but aimless. Each of Seattle’s next two goals were on quick-as-thunder hits on counters that proved the Sounders can we as good as any team in the league there. Pineda’s goal came just 16 seconds after the first kick and Martins scored 12 seconds from the time the ball left Stefan Frei’s hand.
The bigger surprise on Saturday, though, was how Seattle was able to completely neutralize and shut off Vancouver’s boisterous attack.The Whitecaps’ attack offered little in the way of tactical surprise against the Sounders, which only goes so far toward explaining how Seattle was able to neutralize the threat. As with any attack this dangerous, you need some fortune, and the Whitecaps - namely Octavio Rivero - certainly missed their share of chances. Still, Vancouver ran, played the flanks and did its best to pinch inside via its fleet-footed cruise missiles in Manneh and Cristian Techera.
But what’s shocking is how little Vancouver even tried to test Seattle in the middle of the field just a week after losing starting center back Román Torres for the season. Part of that had to do with personnel.
Tactically, Vancouver coach Carl Robinson’s 4-2-3-1 formation has gradually become more and more heavily reliant on flank play, which is typically fine when there’s this much quality on offer. But that’s come at the expense of the middle, which has become doughier as the season’s gone on.
Seattle fans are plenty familiar with Mauro Rosales, who did his most coherent work here as a shuttler on the right flank and as an absolute dead-eye free kick specialist. He’s never been the most fleet of foot, though, and he often demands cover from the central midfielder shading in his direction. He’s also very clearly not a central playmaker, especially in a run-and-gun system, and Seattle exposed that deficiency in spades on Saturday.
Robinson demands a lot from his midfielders. Whenever the ball turns over, the midfielders immediately turn into divining rods, probing the back line with tiny pinpricks to test for weaknesses. Wherever they sense the opening, that’s where the ball is shuttled. That’s why this team needs so little oxygen to fan a flame. Its front three in the 4-2-3-1 is so well attuned to this system that it’ll pick it out the opening in your armor and sink in its venom.
Here’s where the problem arose for Vancouver. If Seattle had any opening on its back line, it was through the middle, where Scott and Marshall were steady in central defense. Vancouver, though, was hardly able to approach that lock, let alone pick it, because Rosales was so disconnected from Rivero. Rosales only found Rivero twice, and never in a dangerous position, let alone inside the box.
So here’s how Vancouver’s attack inevitably looked. You either had left-sided holding midfielder Russell Teibert pushing possession wide left to Manneh, which looked like this:
Or you had right-sided holding midfielder Gershon Koffie or right back Jordan Smith providing for Techera. The latter produced 12 passes, which was Vancouver’s most frequent single connection of the game.
Vancouver might’ve thought Techera-on-Oniel Fisher was its easiest point of entry, and in that they were only half right. While it’s true Techera was Vancouver’s most dangerous threat over the course of the match, he was largely invited to provide crosses and passes into space unoccupied by danger. Even on the occasion Techera got in behind Fisher, the Seattle left back’s recovery speed more often than not limited Techera’s ability to dive into the box for a chance himself. In lieu of that, he didn’t have much to pick out in the box, since Vancouver spent so little time attempting to exploit the spine.
Seattle essentially played its game of the season on the road, in a must-win game for playoff seeding which also determined the fate of the Cascadia Cup. It’s hard to overstate the degree of difficulty involved in winning at BC Place this season, and Seattle’s now done it twice, both by two-goal margins.
So here’s the question: If they follow this blueprint, can the Sounders not only win again on Wednesday, but also challenge for the MLS Cup?
